Summary

George Hotz opens by declaring genuine enthusiasm for AI progress, citing LLMs, self-driving, video generation, and coding agents as things that excite him. He then draws a sharp distinction between the technology itself, which he loves, and two flavors of hype he despises: doom-and-gloom narratives about falling behind, and maximalist AGI prophecies about a singular transformative event. His core economic argument is that frontier labs are claiming credit for progress driven by Moore's law and general computing advances rather than their own breakthroughs, making their valuations unjustifiable since they won't capture the value AI creates. He also walks back earlier harshness about models failing at programming, conceding they offer real productivity boosts while cautioning about cognitive fatigue and the continued prevalence of low-quality AI-generated code. The post closes with a simple, sincere declaration: AI is the continuation of the computer revolution.

Key Insight

AI progress is real and worth celebrating, but frontier labs are extracting undeserved credit and valuations from what is fundamentally Moore's law in motion, and their hype — both doom and AGI prophecy — serves to obscure this and justify the money flowing to them.

Spicy Quotes (click to share)

• 7

  The Year of the Linux Desktop is finally here!

• 8

  This is negative valence hype, not only is it not true, it's mostly designed to make you feel bad about yourself and move to shitty San Francisco where everything really does suck like how these people claim.

• 9

  I'll bet you everything I have that this doesn't happen. The people perpetuating this are terrible people, but the justice is that this is how they feel inside all the time themselves.

• 7

  A certain cult likes to claim credit for things that are happening with or without them.

• 8

  It's not that AI won't create that much value, it's that they won't capture it.

• 6

  the core of the anti open source arguments is a fear of commodification

• 7

  AI is something that's happening mostly due to Moore's law and general progress in computing, not something that they are doing.

• 7

  all the vibe coded stuff is still slop (where's all this new magical software that the productivity improvements should imply?)

• 3

  AI is the continuation of the computer revolution. I love computers so much.

Tone

opinionated, contrarian, passionate, pragmatic